Global Update: Analysts say a Russian victory in Ukraine War is “not inevitable”

New assessments from observers at Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that despite aggressive advances, a clear military victory for Russia in its war against Ukraine is far from assured. Sky News+2fakti.bg+2

What’s the reality on ground

• The Russian leadership has repeatedly portrayed the conflict as heading toward a “foregone conclusion,” claiming significant territorial gains. But ISW analysis shows that many of these claims are exaggerated. Euromaidan Press+2RBC Ukraine+2
• According to ISW, actual territorial gains since early 2025 are far smaller — and the costs Russia is paying in manpower and resources remain disproportionately high. united24media.com+2fakti.bg+2
• Western governments and international observers agree: despite continuous Russian offensives, the war remains stalemated in many sectors — raising doubts about a definitive Russian triumph. Understanding War+2GOV.UK+2

Why analysts doubt a “Russian victory”

• Even moderate territorial gains come at a steep human and material cost for Russia — something experts say is unsustainable over the medium-to-long term. Euromaidan Press+2Українські Національні Новини (УНН)+2
• The strategy being used amounts to a war of attrition — Russian commanders are banking on exhausting Ukraine and its Western backers. But observers argue that Ukraine, with continued support and resilience, could survive and even regain lost ground. Ukrainian Pravda+2Foreign Affairs Forum+2
• Furthermore, exaggerated claims of territorial capture appear part of a broader information campaign aimed at persuading the international community that Russian victory is inevitable — a narrative many analysts now see as misleading. Київ24+2RBC Ukraine+2

What this means globally

The realization that the war’s outcome is not predetermined has significant geopolitical consequences:

• It increases pressure on Western powers to continue supporting Ukraine — via military aid or diplomacy — since abandoning Kyiv could allow Russia renewed momentum.
• It complicates the Kremlin’s attempts to negotiate from a position of strength; if victory is not certain, demands for concessions become harder to enforce.
• For the global public and media, the conflict remains a volatile, unpredictable crisis — not a concluded event — with humanitarian, economic, and security implications continuing to unfold.